Is there an impending epidemic of myopia in Southeast Asia? An appraisal of the evidence.

Predictions on the future prevalence of myopia suggest one of the Global Burden of Disease regions will develop an epidemic like in East Asia and Singapore in Southeast Asia. This paper analyses the available evidence on prevalence of myopia in this region, concluding that the bulk of the evidence suggests that the prevalence of myopia at the end of schooling is still modest, although two papers suggest that in young adults in Thailand and Indonesia, the prevalence of myopia may be approaching levels typical of the epidemic of myopia. It also analyses an indicator of expected years of education at school entry, as well as current educational levels of adults, using data from the calculation of the UN Human Development Index. It then analyses the results obtained by the countries of the Southeast Asian region in the PISA international surveys of student achievement. Neither of these educational indicators suggests an impending epidemic of myopia. There is a need for more data to clarify this uncertainty. It is suggested that future collection of data concentrate on determining the prevalence of myopia in young adults finishing their schooling. Even methodology as simple as determining levels of lowered visual acuity in senior school students should be sufficient to resolve the uncertainty. This group provides a sound basis for the prediction of future levels of myopia in the adult population, and avoids the impact of the high levels of myopia and high myopia associated with cataract development that occur in much of Southeast Asia.