New metrics for governance in the era of earth observation data: Monitoring violations after wildfires.

This study uses Earth observation data to measure illegal activities and investigates possible relationships with local governments. We have collected satellite images, digital maps, and geospatial data for over a decade to detect potential illegal constructions in protected burned forest areas in Sardinia, Italy. We create a database of buildings erected in these protected areas and connect it to administrative data on local election results. First, we examine the climatic and geographical factors that contribute to wildfires. Our findings indicate that fires tend to spread more in places with higher altitudes and greater distances from urban centers. This highlights the challenges that local authorities face in monitoring and intervening in areas that are less accessible. Next, we analyze the relationship between mayoral turnover and constructions erected in protected burned forests to highlight how this phenomenon influences voters' preferences. We observe that citizens express their disapproval of these illegal activities through the ballot box. Violations in the years leading up to local elections increase the likelihood of a change in mayoral leadership within a municipality.