A comparative analysis of car fleet efficiency evolution in Europe and Australia insights on policy influence.

Regulators worldwide introduce measures to improve energy consumption and reduce greenhouse emissions of road vehicles. The present study focuses on the impacts of passenger car carbon dioxide (CO) and fuel efficiency measures, attempting to evaluate their effectiveness using vehicle and fleet modelling. To obtain a robust counterfactual result, two regions are compared as a case study: the European Union (EU), where CO emissions have been regulated for over fifteen years, and Australia, a region that recently introduced such a policy element. The average difference in the certified CO emissions of new cars registered in the two regions increased from 50 g/km in 2018 to 60 g/km in 2021 due to accelerated electrification in the EU. To demonstrate the importance of mandatory targets, a sensitivity analysis of the 2020 EU registrations showed that lower by one-third sales of zero and low-emission vehicles (Z-L-EVs) would have resulted in seven out of ten manufacturer pools failing to meet the 2020 target of 95 g/km. The simulation framework was validated against certified values of 2021 registrations and was subsequently used to calculate real-world fleet performance to quantify the actual emissions savings. The real-world CO emissions in the registered fleets for 2021 were estimated to be 143 g/km and 204 g/km, for the EU and Australia, respectively. With these results as a reference, the share of ZEVs required to meet the targets set in both regions is calculated: 51% of the new registrations in 2030 in the EU for achieving 49.5 g/km, and 60% in Australia for recently set target of 58 g/km for 2029. The respective calculated average fleet-wide real-world tailpipe CO emissions were estimated to be 66 g/km (EU) and 77 g/km (Australia). As a last step, the study discusses the application of similar tools and analysis in the design of future policies.