Incidence of long-term conditions in the Latin American community of London: A validation and retrospective cohort study of 890,922 primary care records, 2005-2022.

Background: Minoritised populations in the United Kingdom frequently identify in multiple ethnic groupings and therefore little is known of their health needs. There were 136,062 Latin American people recorded in the 2021 UK Census across six different ethnic groups.

Aim: Characterise the incidence of long-term conditions (LTCs) and multiple LTCs (mLTCs) amongst the Latin American community of London. Compare the incidence of LTCs in the Latin American population to other ethnic groups.

Design And Setting: Retrospective cohort study using pseudonymised primary care data from 890,922 individuals in an urban, superdiverse area of London from 2005-2022.

Method: Latin American individuals were identified using country of birth, language and ethnicity codes, and validated against Census findings. Multivariable competing risks regression models estimated the effect of being Latin American, compared to the White British ethnic group, on incidence of 32 LTCs and risk factors relevant to urban populations.

Results: 28,617 Latin American people were identified in this cohort, 3.2% of total. In multivariable analysis, compared to the White British ethnic group, being Latin American was associated with twice the rate of HIV/AIDS (hazard ratio (HR) 2.00; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-2.43), 60% increased rate of diabetes (HR 1.61; 95%CI 1.47-1.77) and almost twice the rate of systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis (HRs 2.28; 95% CI 1.18-4.38 and 1.69; 95% CI 1.32-2.17 respectively).

Conclusion: Using commonly-recorded primary care codes accurately and reliably identifies markedly higher risks of HIV/AIDS, diabetes and joint disease among London's Latin American population. These data can be used to target inclusive and equitable health interventions.