Ceramide and phosphatidylcholine lipids-based risk score predicts major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure.

Background: Ceramide and phosphatidylcholine lipids-based risk score (CERT2) has shown a strong prognostic value in predicting cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with ischemic heart disease. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of CERT2 risk score in patients with heart failure (HF).

Methods: The current study combines data for 4234 subjects from the COMMANDER-HF trial and 1227 subjects from the GISSI-HF trial, which enrolled patients with a history of HF. The CERT2 risk score was calculated for all the participants as previously described. The primary outcome was CV death, but all-cause death and major adverse CV events (three-point MACE) were analysed as well.

Results: After adjustment for established CV risk factors and potential confounders, patients with the highest CERT2 risk category remained at almost three-fold higher risk of CV death (COMMANDER-HF: HR 2.80, 95% CI 2.18-3.60, GISSI-HF: 2.84, 95% CI 1.70-4.74), all-cause death (COMMANDER-HF: HR 2.97, 95% CI 2.36-3.75, GISSI-HF: 2.83, 95% CI 1.83-4.38) and MACE (COMMANDER-HF: HR 2.73, 95% CI 2.20-3.38, GISSI-HF: 2.67, 95% CI 1.67-4.26) compared to those with the lowest CERT2 risk category.

Conclusions: The CERT2 risk score is strongly associated with an increased risk of CV death, all-cause death and MACE in patients with HF.