Dynamic estimation of the soil environmental carrying capacity for Benzo(a)pyrene in an industrial city, China: Insight from both duration and rate of regional emission.

An in-depth investigation of the maximum environmental load is crucial for soil security and pollution prevention. This research focused on soil environmental carrying capacity (SECC) for different risk receptors in a Chinese industrial city. By determining risk threshold for various land use types, we integrated mass balance and iterative models to capture dynamic net input fluxes with spatial heterogeneity. This enabled quantitative characterization of Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) SECC through top-down and bottom-up approaches (corresponding to duration (D) and rate of regional emission, respectively). The thresholds were in the order of agricultural land < residential land < forest < industrial land < park. The top-down analysis showed D increased ∼1.5x with a 5% input flux decline until 2031. The bottom-up analysis suggested industrial emissions decreased by approximately 10% as the pollution control period was extended from 20 to 50 years. Both methods showed that at maximum background values (C), D was ∼4x and the industrial emission rate was ∼10% higher than at minimum C. SECC values near industrial areas significantly decreased, even reaching negative values, signifying complete carrying capacity loss. This study provided an approach to the dynamics of SECC under diverse scenarios, aiding informed decision-making for sustainable land management.