Pancreatic atrophy is a predictor for exocrine pancreatic dysfunction: Data from a large cohort of patients with chronic pancreatitis.

Objectives: Pancreatic atrophy is commonly observed in end-stage chronic pancreatitis (CP). Diagnostic standards for pancreatic atrophy not well established. The present cross-sectional observation study explored two-point pancreatic size measurements in a large CP cohort from the Scandinavian Baltic Pancreatic Club (SBPC) database to validate clinically relevant cutoffs for pancreatic atrophy and explore associations to etiological factors and disease outcomes.

Methods: Patients with CP according to M-ANNHEIM diagnostic criteria were included. We measured maximal axial dimension of the pancreatic head and body and recorded presence of calcifications and pancreatic duct changes on cross-sectional imaging. We calculated cutoffs for clinically relevant atrophy related to exocrine pancreatic dysfunction (EPD) defined as fecal elastase (FE) < 200. Associations between pancreatic atrophy and smoke, alcohol, sex, body size and disease outcomes were analysed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results: We included 539 CP patients (356 male) from four centres in the SBPC study group. Small pancreatic size represented by sum of two-point maximal axial dimension less than 31 mm for females and 37.5 mm for males predicted EPD with good specificity (males: 0.89 (95 % CI, 0.81, 0.95), females: 0.96 (95 % CI, 0.85, 0.99)) but poor sensitivity (males: 0.38 (95 % CI, 0.31, 0.45), females 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.18, 0.35). Male sex, increasing age and long duration of CP were clearly associated with pancreatic atrophy. Corrected for other factors reducing exocrine capacity, pancreatic atrophy was still strongly associated to EPD.

Conclusion: We conclude that following the suggested cutoffs, pancreatic atrophy in CP is independently associated with EPD.