AI Article Synopsis
- This study investigates the use of decision markets to choose which social science experiments should be replicated, focusing on outcomes of 41 close replications of MTurk experiments.
- Researchers found that the highest-ranking studies in the market had an 83% replication success rate, while the lowest-ranking studies had only a 33% success rate.
- Overall, about 54% of the experiments were successfully replicated, with effect sizes averaging 45% of the original values, indicating that replicability in MTurk experiments is on par with past laboratory replication projects.
Article Abstract
Here we test the feasibility of using decision markets to select studies for replication and provide evidence about the replicability of online experiments. Social scientists (n = 162) traded on the outcome of close replications of 41 systematically selected MTurk social science experiments published in PNAS 2015-2018, knowing that the 12 studies with the lowest and the 12 with the highest final market prices would be selected for replication, along with 2 randomly selected studies. The replication rate, based on the statistical significance indicator, was 83% for the top-12 and 33% for the bottom-12 group. Overall, 54% of the studies were successfully replicated, with replication effect size estimates averaging 45% of the original effect size estimates. The replication rate varied between 54% and 62% for alternative replication indicators. The observed replicability of MTurk experiments is comparable to that of previous systematic replication projects involving laboratory experiments.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02062-9 | DOI Listing |
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