Analysis of Tuberculosis Epidemiological Distribution Characteristics in Fujian Province, China, 2005-2021: Spatial-Temporal Analysis Study.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic infectious disease that harms human health for a long time. TB epidemiological distribution analysis can help governments to control TB in high TB incidence areas. The distribution trend of TB cases varies in different regions. The unbalanced temporal and spatial trends of pulmonary TB (PTB) risk at a fine level in Fujian Province remain unclear.

Objective: The purpose was to analyze different distribution characteristics, explore the prevalence of TB in this region, and provide a scientific basis for further guidance of TB control work in Fujian Province, China.

Methods: Prefectural-level and county-level notified PTB case data were collected in Fujian Province. A joinpoint regression model was constructed to analyze the unbalanced temporal patterns of PTB notification rates from 2005 to 2021 at prefecture-level city scales. The spatial clustering analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed to assess the inequality of the locations of PTB cases. Demographical characteristics were explored by the method of descriptive analysis.

Results: TB cases reported in Fujian showed an overall downward trend from 2005 to 2021 (in 2005: n=32,728 and in 2021: n=15,155). TB case numbers showed obvious seasonal changes. The majority of TB cases were middle-aged and older adult male patients (45 years and older; n=150,201, 42.6%). Most of the TB cases were farmers (n=166,186, 47.1%), followed by houseworkers and the unemployed (n=48,828, 13.8%) and workers (n=34,482, 9.8%). Etiologically positive TB cases continue to be the main source of TB cases (n=159,702, 45.3%). Spatially, the reported TB cases were mainly distributed in cities in southeastern Fujian, especially at the county level. TB case numbers showed 2 spatial groups; cases within each group shared similar case characteristics. In terms of geographical distribution, TB showed obvious spatial correlation, and local areas showed high aggregation.

Conclusions: The TB incidence trend decreased annually in Fujian Province. TB cases distributed commonly in the male population, middle-aged and older people, and farmers. Etiologically positive cases are still the main source of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. TB incidence is higher in the cities with a developed economy and large population in the southeast. TB control should be strengthened in these populations and areas, such as via early screening of cases and management of confirmed cases.