Seed market dynamics and diffusion of new wheat varieties in Bihar, India: a supply-side perspective.

Unlabelled: An examination of the dynamics of seed markets in Bihar, India, reveals a paradox-despite an influx of wheat varieties bred by public and private sectors and the proliferation of seed market networks in rural villages, older wheat varieties remain prevalent-necessitating a thorough investigation of the seed distribution system. Unlike most empirical studies that examine the adoption of new and improved crop varieties from a farmer's perspective, our study shifts the focus to the seed supply side. We analyse data collected from 200 private seed dealers who cater to the needs of over 163,000 farmers spread across 10 districts in Bihar. We use descriptive statistics alongside dealer-level and varietal-level regression models to examine the relationship between seed sales and varietal age. Findings indicate that the number of varieties available with a dealer (varietal richness) is positively associated with the number of seed buyers (dealer's reach) and the total quantity of seeds sold. Private varieties are in demand despite their higher prices. Dealer-level models showed that varietal age affects neither the reach nor the sales, allowing older public-sector varieties to coexist with more recent private-sector ones. However, the varietal-level regression models show that dealers rank the new varieties higher as the ones being sold more. To explore the potential of private seed markets to reduce the proliferation of old wheat varieties that are more susceptible to evolving biotic and abiotic stress factors, we recommend strengthening the varietal registration and seed certification processes, implementing better seed traceability systems, and fostering public-private partnerships in variety development and seed dissemination. Investing in market experiments to incentivize seed dealers to engage in quality assurance can help refine strategies and ensure efficient and inclusive dissemination of promising wheat varieties.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40100-024-00330-w.