Triglyceride and Glucose Index as an Optimal Predictor of Metabolic Syndrome in Lebanese Adults.

Globally, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is on the rise, especially in Arab countries, which emphasizes the need for reliable ethnic-specific biochemical screening parameters. Two hundred twenty-one Lebanese adults were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Biochemical parameters including Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA), Triglyceride and Glucose index (TyG), ratio of Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (TG/HDL-C), Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP), and Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI) were assessed for their prediction of MetS. Analysis of covariance, logistic regression, expected-versus-observed case ratio were used to determine model calibration, concordance statistic, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values (PPV, NPV). The prevalence of MetS was 44.3%. All biochemical parameters were significantly associated with MetS, with a strong model discrimination (c-statistic between 0.77 and 0.94). In both sex categories, TyG best predicted MetS (females: cut-off value, 8.34; males: cut-off value, 8.43) and showed good estimation among females, but overestimation among males. HOMA had the lowest discriminatory power in both sex categories. This study suggests that TyG best predicts MetS, while HOMA has the lowest predictive power. Future larger studies need to focus on harmonizing ethnic specific cut-offs and further validating our results.