How to ensure an appropriate oral health workforce? Modelling future scenarios for the Netherlands.

Background: Current methods for oral health workforce planning lack responsiveness to dynamic needs, hampering efficiency, equity and sustainability. Effective workforce planning is vital for resilient health care systems and achieving universal health coverage. Given this context, we developed and operationalised a needs-adaptive oral health workforce planning model and explored the potential of various future scenarios.

Methods: Using publicly available data, including the Special Eurobarometer 330 Oral Health Survey, we applied the model in a hypothetical context focusing on the Dutch population's dental needs from 2022 to 2050. We compared current and future provider supply and requirement and examined, in addition to a base case scenario, several alternative scenarios. These included epidemiological transition scenarios with different oral health morbidity trajectories, skill-mix scenarios with independent oral hygienists conducting check-ups and multiple dental student intake and training duration (5 instead of 6 years) scenarios.

Results: Based on the aforementioned historical data, our model projects that provider requirement will exceed supply for the planning period. If the percentage of people having all natural teeth increases by 10% or 20% in 2032, 34 or 68 additional full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists will be required, respectively, compared to the base case scenario. In the skill-mix scenario, the model indicates that prioritising oral hygienists for check-ups and shifting dentists' focus to primarily complex care could address population needs more efficiently. Among the student intake and training duration scenarios, increasing intake to 375 and, to a lesser extent, reducing training to 5 years is projected to most effectively close the provider gap.

Conclusions: The study underscores the importance of understanding oral health morbidity trajectories for effective capacity planning. Due to limited dental epidemiological data, projections carry substantial uncertainty. Currently, demand for FTE dentists seems to exceed supply, though this may vary with epidemiological changes. Skill-mix strategies could offer efficiency gains by redistributing tasks, while adjustments in dental intake and training duration could also help address the requirement-supply gap. Resolving dentistry workforce challenges requires a multifaceted approach, including strengthening oral epidemiology projections, addressing the root causes of dental health issues and prioritising harmonious dental public health and general practice prevention measures.