Arresting environmental degradation to build wealth in Thailand.

Thailand aims to achieve high-income status by 2037 through the strategies developed in its 20-year National Strategy Preparation Act. Considerable friction is being generated through climate change and unsustainable natural resources management which are eroding Thailand's natural capital base, resilience and ability to generate wealth and progress toward its target. In this paper, we examine the impacts of ongoing environmental degradation including continued deforestation and climate change-induced impacts on flooding, productivity and sea-level rise. We contrast this future trajectory with the implementation of a policy package aligned with Thailand's National Strategy and Nationally Determined Contributions to counteract environmental degradation and adapt to and mitigate climate change. Where environmental degradation continues unchecked, Gross Domestic Product would decline by US$553 billion. Standing forest stock would be reduced from 8.25 million hectares to 5.43 million hectares and cumulative losses of Provisioning, Cultural and recreational and Regulating ecosystem services would be US$99 billion, US$61 billion and US$17 billion, respectively, by 2050. Policies to arrest environmental degradation would offset some but not all impacts with the loss in Gross Domestic Product 32 % (US$174.9 billion) of what it would be without policy intervention. Wealth, the more appropriate metric of sustainable economic development, would increase by US$54.5 billion. The most effective measure to arrest environmental degradation and build wealth would be to eliminate deforestation. Doing so quickly would reduce ecosystem service losses, maintain carbon in forests and enhance water regulation ecosystem services which are critical for reducing flood hazards, loss of life and infrastructure damage. To advance an effective policy agenda for reaching high-income status, operational plans and cost estimations for mitigating and adapting to climate change and eliminating deforestation are necessary to guide the allocation of public and private investment to meet this formidable challenge.