A new prognostic scoring system for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma in the era of new drugs.

Background: We developed a new predictive staging system to explore the heterogeneity of survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients in the real world.

Methods: In this retrospective study, we evaluated the predictive value of cytogenetic abnormal and clinical data in 375 patients with NDMM at our center. Established a weighted MM prognostic scoring system risk model and validated its predicted PFS and OS by external cohort.

Results: Elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (1 point), international staging system stage II/III (1 point), 1q21+ ≥ 52.75% (0.5 point), del (17p) ≥ 3.5% (0.5 point), and t (14;16) ≥ 35.25% (1 point) had independent prognostic significance. Patients were further divided into three risk groups: low (I) (score 0-0.5, 16.5%), intermediate (II) (score 1, 46.7%), and high (III) (score 1.5-3, 36.8%). In the training cohort, the 3-year PFS was 79.5% vs. 65.3% vs. 40.3% ( < 0.001), and the 3-year OS was 87.7% vs.70.1% vs. 55% ( < 0.001) for the three risk groups. In the external validation cohort, the 3-year PFS was 85.5% vs.61.2% vs. 43.1% ( < 0.001) and the 3-year OS was 91.4% vs.83.5% vs. 56.9% ( < 0.001) for the three risk groups.

Conclusion: The risk stratification of this model shows good discrimination and calibration, and its application in clinical practice can improve the risk assessment of patients with NDMM and guide personalized treatment strategies.