Risk factors and incidence of new-onset heart failure with conventional pacemaker implant: A nationwide study.

Background: Studies have shown that the risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) is higher postimplantation for patients receiving right ventricular pacing.

Objective: This study aimed to investigate incidence, risk factors, and implications for long-term prognosis of new-onset HF in patients after pacemaker implantation.

Methods: Patients without pre-existing HF who received a pacemaker in Sweden during the period of 2005 to 2020 were identified via the nationwide Pacemaker Registry. Data were crossmatched with the population registry and national disease registries. The primary outcome was new-onset HF within 5 years, and a risk score for this was developed and validated.

Results: In all, 65,579 patients met the inclusion criteria (10,351 single-chamber ventricular and 55,228 dual-chamber pacemakers). A total of 13,792 (21.0%) patients were diagnosed with HF within 5 years postimplantation. Of these, 6244 (45.3%) were hospitalized for HF. Patients with new-onset HF were more likely to die within 5 years (41.2% vs 19.7%, < .0001). Risk factors for new-onset HF included increasing age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, chronic lung and kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, and atrioventricular block. In a combined score using these variables, patients in the highest risk-score quartile had a hazard ratio of 5.36 (95% CI 4.91-5.86, < .001) and an absolute risk of 32% for developing HF.

Conclusion: Pacemaker therapy is associated with >20% risk of new-onset HF within 5 years, and we identified 9 risk factors associated with the diagnosis of new-onset HF. The proposed score based on these variables can be used to identify patients at high risk for new-onset HF.