Routine immunization against and type B and antibiotic consumption in India: a dynamic modeling analysis.

Background: Childhood vaccinations can reduce disease burden and associated antibiotic use, in turn reducing the risk of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We retrospectively estimated the population-level reductions in antibiotic use in India following the introduction of vaccines against and type B in the national immunization program for children in the mid-2010s and projected future gains to 2028 if vaccination coverage were to be increased.

Methods: Using IndiaSim, a dynamic agent-based microsimulation model (ABM) for India, we simulated the spread of and type B (Hib) among children to estimate reductions in antibiotic use under the scenarios of: (i) pneumococcal and Hib vaccine coverage levels equivalent to the national coverage of pentavalent diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus third dose (DPT3) compared to a baseline of no vaccination, and (ii) near-universal (90%) coverage of the vaccines compared to pre-COVID national DPT3-level coverage. Model parameters, including national DPT3 coverage rates, were based on data from the National Family Household Survey 2015-2016 and other published sources. We quantified reductions in antibiotic consumption nationally and by state and wealth quintiles.

Findings: We estimate that coverage of and Hib vaccines at the same level as DPT3 in India would translate to a 61.4% [95% UI: 43.8-69.5] reduction in attributable antibiotic use compared to a baseline of zero vaccination coverage. Increases in childhood vaccination coverage between 2004 and 2016 have likely reduced attributable antibiotic demand by as much as 93.4% among the poorest quintile. Increasing vaccination coverage by an additional 11 percentage points from 2016 levels results in mortality and antibiotic use across wealth quintiles becoming increasingly similar (p < 0.05), reducing in health inquities. We project that near-universal vaccine coverage would further reduce inequities in antibiotic demand and may eliminate of outbreak-associated antibiotic use from and Hib.

Interpretation: Though vaccination has a complex relationship with antibiotic use because both are modulated by socioeconomic factors, increasing vaccinations for and Hib may have a significant impact on reducing antibiotic use and improving health outcomes among the poorest individuals.

Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant numbers OPP1158136 and OPP1190803).