Decadal trends and predictive insights into aquatic ecosystem health in the Namhan River, South Korea: Longitudinal analysis of hydro-environmental factors and stream health indices (2008-2022).

The main focus of this study is to explore the complex interactions between aquatic ecosystem health (AEH) and time-varying hydro-environmental factors. We measure AEH in the Namhan River of South Korea using stream health index (SHI) scores for the trophic diatom index (TDI), benthic macroinvertebrate index (BMI), and fish assessment index (FAI) for 2008 to 2022. Key hydro-environmental variables associated with AEH, including their time-lagged responses, are identified. Water quality parameters such as chemical oxygen demand (COD) are significantly and negatively correlated with TDI (r=-0.68), BMI (r=-0.87), and FAI (r=-0.70), highlighting the critical role of water quality in the sensitivities of diatoms, macroinvertebrates, and fish health. The apparent response lag of aquatic ecosystems to hydrological parameters, such as a one-year-lagged correlation of BMI with mean flow (r=0.74) and annual flow anomalies (r=0.73), suggests their potential use as predictors in AEH models. A longitudinal analysis of SHIs over a decade showed consistent changes in AEH from upstream to downstream, with notable trends in the deterioration and improvement of SHIs in different areas. The upstream TDI and BMI deteriorated, while the upstream FAI improved. A multiple-linear-regression-based predictive model demonstrated efficacy in predicting AEH under various hydro-environmental conditions, achieving R values up to 0.85 for BMI and also has the potential to simulate the impacts of anticipated climatic and hydrological changes.