Construction of a combined prognostic model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma based on deep learning and digital pathology images.

Background: Deep learning has made significant advancements in the field of digital pathology, and the integration of multiple models has further improved accuracy. In this study, we aimed to construct a combined prognostic model using deep learning-extracted features from digital pathology images of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) alongside clinical predictive indicators and to explore its prognostic value.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 142 postoperative pathologically confirmed PDAC cases. These cases were divided into training (n = 114) and testing sets (n = 28) at an 8:2 ratio. Tumor whole-slide imaging features were extracted and screened to construct a pathological risk model based on a pre-trained deep learning model. Clinical and pathological data from the training set were used to select independent predictive factors for PDAC and establish a clinical risk model using LASSO, univariate, and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Based on the pathological and clinical risk models, a combined model was developed. The Harrell concordance index (C-index) was computed to assess the predictive performance of each model for PDAC survival prognosis.

Results: For the training and testing sets, the C-index values for the clinical risk model were 0.76 and 0.75, respectively; for the pathological risk model, they were 0.82 and 0.73, respectively; and for the combined model, they were 0.86 and 0.77, respectively. The combined model exhibited appropriate calibration at 1-, 3-, and 5-year time points, as well as a superior area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve and clinical net benefit compared to the single models.

Conclusions: Integrating the pathological and clinical risk models may provide a higher predictive value for survival prognosis.