The Surveillance Strategy for Intraductal Pancreatic Mucinous Neoplasms: Criteria for Discontinuation.

Objective: To review the surveillance of IPMN, the risk of pancreatic cancer and the cost of surveillance.

Background: The increasing IPMN prevalence and low pancreatic cancer associated with IPMN question the necessity and cost-effectiveness of surveillance. Guidelines favour a 'watch and wait' approach, lacking clarity on stopping surveillance. This study aims to identify patients with pancreatic cancer risk equivalent to their age group, create guidelines for stopping surveillance and reduce NHS costs.

Methods: Retrospective analysis of IPMN patients on surveillance in the WoS. Clinicopathological data were collected. Endpoints included pancreatic cancer development and surveillance pathway cost estimation. Age-matched controls were used for comparison using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for pancreatic cancer.

Results: Of 746 patients, 27 (3.62%) were resected. 3 (0.402%) developed pancreatic cancer and 44 (5.90%) developed worrisome features/ high-risk stigmata after a median surveillance of 48 (IQR 48) months. 221 (29.6%) had a stable cyst for at least 5 years and their SIR was 1.56 (95% CI 0.04-8.71). Patients ≥75 years with stable cysts for ≥5 years, SIR was 1.71 (95% CI 0.03-3.42). Patients ≥65 years with stable cysts of <15 mm for ≥5 years and patients with stable cysts of <10 mm for ≥5 years, had SIRs of 0. The cost of surveillance was £6,330.36 ($8,105.65) per resected patient and £2,032.78 ($2,602.85) per non-resected patient.

Conclusion: Patients with stable IPMNs have similar pancreatic cancer risk as the general population. Surveillance discontinuation can be considered after 5 years in a cohort of patients, saving £106,211.19 ($136,020.42) per year.