Platelet counts to spleen diameter ratio: A promising noninvasive tool for predicting esophageal varices in cirrhosis patients.

Background: Liver cirrhosis is the end stage of progressive liver fibrosis as a consequence of chronic liver inflammation, wherein the standard hepatic architecture is replaced by regenerative hepatic nodules, which eventually lead to liver failure. Cirrhosis without any symptoms is referred to as compensated cirrhosis. Complications such as ascites, variceal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy indicate the onset of decompensated cirrhosis. Gastroesophageal varices are the hallmark of clinically significant portal hypertension.

Aim: To determine the accuracy of the platelet count-to-spleen diameter (PC/SD) ratio to evaluate esophageal varices (EV) in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital and Adera Medical Center from January 1, 2019, to December 30, 2023. Data were collected chart review and direct patient interviews using structured questionnaires. The data were exported to the SPSS software version 26 for analysis and clearance. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted for splenic diameter, platelet count, and PC/SD ratio to obtain sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio.

Results: Of the 140 participants, 67% were men. Hepatitis B (38%) was the most common cause of cirrhosis, followed by cryptogenic cirrhosis (28%) and hepatitis C (16%). Approximately 83.6% of the participants had endoscopic evidence of EV, whereas 51.1% had gastric varices. Decompensated cirrhosis and PC were associated with the presence of EV with adjusted odds ratios of 12.63 (95%CI: 3.16-67.58, = 0.001) and 0.14 (95%CI: 0.037-0.52, = 0.004), respectively. A PC/SD ratio < 1119 had a sensitivity of 86.32% and specificity of 70% with area under the curve of 0.835 (95%CI: 0.736-0.934, < 0.001).

Conclusion: A PC/SD ratio < 1119 predicts EV in patients with cirrhosis. It is a valuable, noninvasive tool for EV risk assessment in resource-limited settings.