Clinical and imaging predictors for the development of diabetes mellitus following a single episode of acute pancreatitis in youth.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) increases the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). Our aim was to identify clinical, laboratory and imaging predictors of preDM/DM in youth post index AP.

Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients ≤21 years-old with an index admission for AP and follow up at 3 and/or 12 months. Clinical laboratory values, imaging findings, admission course, and plasma chemokine and cytokine measures collected at index admission were tested for association with preDM/DM development. A multivariable regression model was used to predict preDM/DM.

Results: Among 187 enrolled participants, 137 (73 %) and 144 (77 %) underwent DM screening at 3 and 12 months respectively, and 137 (73 %) had imaging available. PreDM/DM occurred in 22/137 (16 %; preDM n = 21, DM n = 1) at 3 months and 23/144 (16 %; preDM n = 18, DM n = 5) participants at 12 months. Univariate associations with preDM/DM at 12 months included: severe AP (SAP) (52 % preDM/DM vs. 17 % no DM; p = 0.0008), median [IQR] IL-6 (910 pg/ml [618-3438] vs. 196 pg/ml [71-480], p < 0.05) and CRP (4.16 mg/L [1.67-10.7] vs. 1.55 mg/L [0.4-3.68], p = 0.1) at time of AP attack. The optimal multivariable model to predict preDM/DM included with clinical variables was severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), c reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and age [AUC = 0.80; (0.70, 0.88)]. Including imaging markers, the ideal model included SAP, CRP, IL-6, subcutaneous fat area, age and presence of autoimmune disease with an AUC [0.82 (0.71, 0.90)].

Conclusions: Development of preDM/DM following an index AP episode can be predicted by baseline AP severity, baseline CRP, IL-6 levels, and subcutaneous fat area.