Prevalence of Dunning-Kruger effect in first semester medical students: a correlational study of self-assessment and actual academic performance.

Introduction: The ability to self-assess is a crucial skill in identifying one's own strengths and weaknesses and in coordinating self-directed learning. The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when limited knowledge causes individuals to overestimate their competence and underestimate others', leading to poor self-assessment and unrecognized incompetence. To serve as a foundation for developing strategies to improve self-assessment, the self-assessment abilities of first-semester students were assessed.

Methods: In the final weeks of the summer 2021, winter 2021/22, and summer 2022 semesters, the academic performance (oral anatomy exam) of first semester students was assessed (0-15 points). Before the exam results were announced, students were asked to self-assess their performance.

Results: Exam scores (M = 10.64, SD = 2.95) and self-assessed scores (M = 10.38, SD = 2.54) were comparable. The absolute difference between them, as a measure of self-assessment ability ranged from - 9 to + 9 points (M = -0.26, SD = 2.59). Among participants (N = 426), 18.5% assessed themselves accurately, 35.5% overestimated, and 46.0% underestimated their performance. The correlation between actual score and self-assessment was ρ = -0.590 (p < 0.001), reflecting the Dunning-Kruger effect. When separated by gender, correlation for females was ρ = -0.591 (p < 0.001), and for males ρ = -0.580 (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Realistic self-assessment is a challenge for first-semester students. The data indicate that females tend to overestimate their performance while males underestimate theirs. A pronounced Dunning-Kruger effect is evident in both genders, with significant negative correlations between self-assessment and actual performance. There are several reasons for the occurrence of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic influenced learning environments, collaborative learning was significantly restricted. The lack of opportunities for comparison could potentially lead to unrealistic self-assessment.