Impact of age at HBsAg seroclearance on hepatic outcomes and life expectancy in men with chronic HBV infection based on multi-state modeling of the natural history.

Background: The effects of age at HBsAg seroclearance on clinical outcomes and survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) have not been adequately assessed. We evaluated the impact of age at HBsAg seroclearance on long-term outcomes, along with how coexisting factors modified risks and life expectancy in CHB patients.

Methods: We used multi-state modeling approach to examine transitions through the CHB continuum in a longitudinal cohort study of male civil servants recruited in 1989-1992. Hepatic outcomes and deaths were identified by clinical evaluation and linkage with national health databases. Four sets of risk factors (CHB-related, metabolic, lifestyle, and genetic factors) were assessed.

Results: Of 2551 HBsAg carriers, with follow-up until 2021 or death, 695 achieved HBsAg seroclearance, 490 developed cirrhosis (88 decompensated), 252 developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and 652 died. The cumulative rates for HCC were 1.1% and 1.5% at 10 years after HBsAg seroclearance, respectively, for patients achieving seroclearance at age 50 and 60; correspondingly, the rates for cirrhosis were 2.3% and 3.0%. Developing HBsAg seroclearance was associated with a reduced risk of cirrhosis (HR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.15-0.92) but not HCC. Patients experiencing HBsAg seroclearance lived longer years free of major liver diseases than HBsAg-persistent patients, and achieving seroclearance at age 50 (vs 60) led to a greater increase in the disease-free life expectancy. However, obesity and smoking were associated with adverse hepatic outcomes and loss of the disease-free life expectancy following HBsAg seroclearance.

Conclusions: Our findings highlight the benefit of earlier HBsAg seroclearance for gains in disease-free life expectancy and the impact of obesity and smoking on loss of the life years free of major liver diseases following HBsAg seroclearance.