Correlation change analysis and NDVI prediction in the Yellow River Basin of China using complex networks and GRNN-PSRLSTM.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is affected by various environmental factors, and its relationship with these factors is complex. In order to explore the complex relationship between NDVI and environmental factors, this paper adopts the complex network method to construct a correlation fluctuation network and analyze the interaction between them. It is found that temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, sunshine duration, and PM2.5 are all correlated with NDVI to varying degrees, and their combined correlation with NDVI varies over time. The correlation typically takes 3 to 6 months to change, and it tends to persist to some extent. Moreover, we fuse a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) with a long-short-term memory (LSTM) network combining phase space reconstruction (PSR) to propose a GRNN-PSRLSTM prediction model. The model achieves the prediction of monthly NDVI using the five environmental factors of the fluctuation network. The results indicate that the averages of root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) predicted by the GRNN-PSRLSTM model in the nine provinces are 0.0232 and 0.0564 respectively. This model performs better in the assessment metrics for monthly NDVI forecasts. These findings are significant for evaluating vegetation changes and have some theoretical value for the ecological protection of the Yellow River Basin.