Development and validation of a web-based nomogram for acute kidney injury in acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Early prediction and intervention are crucial for improving patient outcomes.

Methods: Data for patients presenting with acute NVUGIB in this retrospective study were sourced from the MIMC-IV database. Patients were randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts for further analysis. Independent predictors for AKI were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses in the training cohort. Based on the logistic regression results, a nomogram was developed to predict early AKI onset in acute NVUGIB patients, and implemented as a web-based calculator for clinical application. The nomogram's performance was evaluated through discrimination, using the C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess its clinical value.

Results: The study involved 1082 acute NVUGIB patients, with 406 developing AKI. A multivariable logistic regression identified five key AKI predictors: CKD, use of human albumin, chronic liver disease, glucose, and blood urea nitrogen. The nomogram was constructed based on independent predictors. The nomogram exhibited robust accuracy, evidenced by a C-index of 0.73 in the training cohort and 0.72 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves demonstrated satisfactory concordance between predicted and observed AKI occurrences. DCA revealed that the nomogram offered considerable clinical benefit within a threshold probability range of 7% to 54%.

Conclusion: Our nomogram is a valuable tool for predicting AKI risk in patients with acute NVUGIB, offering potential for early intervention and improved clinical outcomes.