Objective: We examined whether the emotions that clients experience within session are associated with treatment outcome in dialectical behavior therapy (DBT) for borderline personality disorder (BPD).

Method: Participants were 52 adults who met criteria for BPD and were enrolled in a 12-month DBT treatment. The Classification of Affective-Meaning States, an observer-rated measure of discrete emotions, was used to code videos of individual DBT sessions. Raters coded three psychotherapy sessions for each participant: one session from each of the early, working, and late phases of psychotherapy. Self-report measures of BPD symptoms were used to assess treatment outcome.

Results: More emotional experience overall during the early phase predicted fewer BPD symptoms at 12-month treatment outcome, explaining 19% of the variance in symptoms. However, increases across treatment in global distress predicted higher levels of BPD (24% of the variance explained) and depression symptoms (15% explained) at termination. Increases in emotional flexibility (i.e., variation between states) from the early to working phase predicted fewer depressive symptoms at termination (14% explained). Self-compassion coded during the working phase also predicted a better treatment outcome (explaining 19%-34%).

Conclusions: Clients' in-session emotional experiences predict treatment outcome 8-10 months later. Clients with BPD may benefit from more overall exploration of their emotional experiences early in DBT, as well as expression of self-compassion. Increases in nonspecific, intense negative affect anticipates poor prognosis, whereas increases in emotional flexibility during early treatment anticipates better prognosis. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

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