Multiparametric MRI Radiomics With Machine Learning for Differentiating HER2-Zero, -Low, and -Positive Breast Cancer: Model Development, Testing, and Interpretability Analysis.

MRI radiomics has been explored for three-tiered classification of breast cancer HER2 expression (i.e., HER2-zero, HER2-low, or HER2-positive), although understanding of how such models reach their predictions is lacking. To develop and test multiparametric MRI radiomics machine-learning models for differentiating three-tiered HER2 expression levels in patients with breast cancer, and to explain the contributions of model features through local and global interpretations using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis. This retrospective study included 737 patients (mean age, 54.1±10.6 years) with breast cancer from two centers (center 1: n=578; center 2: n=159), who underwent breast MRI and had HER2 expression determined after excisional biopsy. Analysis entailed two tasks: differentiating HER2-negative (i.e., HER2-zero or HER2-low) from HER2-positive tumors (task 1), and differentiating HER2-zero from HER2-low tumors (task 2). For each task, patients from center 1 were randomly assigned in 7:3 ratio to training (task 1: n=405; task 2: n=284) or internal test (task 1: n=173; task 2: n=122) sets; those from center 2 formed an external test set (task 1: n=159; task 2: n=105). Radiomics features were extracted from early-phase dynamic contrast-enhanced images (DCE), T2-weighted images (T2WI), and DWI. For each task, a support vector machine (SVM) was used for feature selection; a multiparametric radiomics score (radscore) was computed using feature weights from SVM correlation coefficients; conventional MRI and combined models were constructed; and model performances were evaluated. SHAP analysis was used to provide local and global interpretations for model outputs. In the external test set, for task 1, AUCs for the conventional MRI model, radscore, and combined model were 0.624, 0.757, and 0.762, respectively; for task 2, AUC for radscore was 0.754, and no conventional MRI model or combined model could be constructed. SHAP analysis identified early-phase DCE features as having the strongest influence for both tasks; T2WI features also had a prominent role for task 2. The findings indicate suboptimal performance of MRI radiomics models for noninvasive characterization of HER2 expression. The study provides an example of the use of SHAP interpretation analysis to better understand predictions of imaging-based machine learning models.