Kidney growth progression patterns in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Background: Prognosis for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), the main inherited cause of kidney failure, relies on estimating cystic growth using linear formulas derived from height-adjusted total kidney volume (Ht-TKV). However, nonlinear renal growth patterns may occur in typical ADPKD.

Aims: To determine kidney outcomes of subjects diagnosed with typical ADPKD exhibiting nonlinear, and unpredictable cystic growth during follow-up.

Methods: Retrospective cohort study. We categorized TKV changes in individuals with typical ADPKD according to observed kidney growth trajectories. Ht-TKV was calculated from consecutive CT or MRI using the ellipsoid method. We compared estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories with linear mixed models.

Results: We included 83 individuals with ADPKD (67% women; age 47 ± 12 years; follow-up 5.2 years [IQR 2.8-9.0]). Three kidney growth patterns were observed: slow progression (24%, <3%/year linear increase), fast progression (39%, ≥3%/year linear increase), and atypical progression (37%, nonlinear growth). Adjusted ht-TKV change in mL/m/year was +1.4 (IQR -4.5 to +10.0), +40.3 (+16.9 to +89.3), and +32.8 (+15.9 to +85.9) for slow, fast, and atypical progressors, respectively (p < 0.001). Atypical progressors exhibited a significantly greater decline in eGFR in mL/min/m²/year (-7.9, 95% CI -6.5, -3.9) compared to slow (-0.5, 95% CI -3.1 to +0.5) and fast progressors (-3.4, 95% CI -7.9, -2.0; between-group p < 0.001). Atypical progressors had a higher proportion of acute complications, including hemorrhages, infections, and urolithiasis (84%), compared to slow (20%) and fast progressors (31%) (p < 0.001).

Conclusion: In typical ADPKD, nonlinear, abrupt, and unpredictable cyst growth occurs frequently, leading to a higher risk of acute complications and kidney function decline.