Effectiveness of Risk-Adapted Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening in China: Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Previous studies have proved the effectiveness of endoscopic screening in rural areas; however, long-term, high-quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of risk-adapted upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) sequential screening strategies in resource-rich regions is currently lacking.

Objective: The objectives were to validate the effectiveness of risk-adapted sequential screening strategies in UGC prevention and control and assess the potential of sequential screening to lower mortality rates.

Methods: Based on the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, a prospective, large-scale cohort study based on population was conducted to recruit individuals from 4 cities in China from 2013-2019. Those identified as having a high risk of UGC according to a validated risk-score model were advised to undergo endoscopy tests. Follow-up outcomes were tracked until June 2021. Incidence of UGC, UGC-related mortality, and all-cause mortality were evaluated between the screened and nonscreened cohorts.

Results: The study included 153,079 participants at baseline. In total, 113,916 (74.42%) of the participants were designated as low risk of UGC. The remaining 39,163 (25.68%) participants were deemed to be at high risk of UGC and were offered gastroscopy tests. Among the high-risk participants, 9627 (compliance rate 24.6%) adhered to the gastroscopy tests. Over a median follow-up of 6.05 (IQR 3.06-7.06) years, 622 UGC cases, 180 UGC deaths, and 1958 all-cause death cases were traced. The screened cohort exhibited the highest cumulative incidence of UGC (119.2 per 100,000 person-years), followed by the nonscreened and low-risk cohorts. Obvious reductions in both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were observed between those who undertook screening (153.7 and 4.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively) and the nonscreened group (245.3 and 27 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The screening population showed a significant 36% and 82% reduction in both all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% CI 0.49-0.83, P<.001) and UGC mortality (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.74, P=.02), respectively, compared to the nonscreened group. Reductions of 35% in all-cause mortality (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.86, P=.003) and 81% in UGC mortality (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.80, P=.02) were observed in participants aged older than 55 years in the screened group compared to the nonscreened group. The reductions in all-cause mortality and UGC mortality were statistically significant in males (all-cause mortality: HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.88, P=.005; UGC mortality: HR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.72, P=.02), but significant reductions were not observed in females (all P values were >.05).

Conclusions: Our study suggests the significance of one-off risk-adapted UGC screening in reducing both all-cause mortality and UGC mortality, particularly among high-risk individuals, indicating its effectiveness in UGC prevention and management.