Serum metabolite biomarkers for the early diagnosis and monitoring of age-related macular degeneration.

Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide, with significant challenges for early diagnosis and treatment.

Objectives: To identify new biomarkers that are important for the early diagnosis and monitoring of the severity/progression of AMD.

Methods: We investigated the diagnostic and monitoring potential of blood metabolites in a cohort of 547 individuals (167 healthy controls, 240 individuals with other eye diseases as eye disease controls, and 140 individuals with AMD) from 2 centers over three phases: discovery phase 1, discovery phase 2, and an external validation phase. The samples were analyzed via a mass spectrometry-based, widely targeted metabolomic workflow. In discovery phases 1 and 2, we built a machine learning algorithm to predict the probability of AMD. In the external validation phase, we further confirmed the performance of the biomarker panel identified by the algorithm. We subsequently evaluated the performance of the identified biomarker panel in monitoring the progression and severity of AMD.

Results: We developed a clinically specific three-metabolite panel (hypoxanthine, 2-furoylglycine, and 1-hexadecyl-2-azelaoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) via five machine learning models. The random forest model effectively discriminated patients with AMD from patents in the other two groups and showed acceptable calibration (area under the curve (AUC) = 1.0; accuracy = 1.0) in both discovery phases 1 and 2. An independent validation phase confirmed the diagnostic model's efficacy (AUC = 0.962; accuracy = 0.88). The three-biomarker panel model demonstrated an AUC of 1.0 in differentiating the severity of AMD via RF machine learning, which was consistent across both the discovery and external validation phases. Additionally, the biomarker concentrations remained stable under repeated freeze-thaw cycles (P > 0.05).

Conclusions: This study reveals distinct metabolite variations in the serum of AMD patients, paving the way for the development of the first routine laboratory test for AMD.