Exploring the association between daily distributional patterns of physical activity and cardiovascular mortality risk among older adults in NHANES 2003-2006.

Purpose: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Physical activity (PA) has previously been shown to be a prominent risk factor for CVD mortality. Traditionally, measurements of PA have been self-reported and based on various summary metrics. However, recent advances in wearable technology provide continuously monitored and objectively measured physical activity data. This facilitates a more comprehensive interpretation of the implications of PA in the context of CVD mortality by considering its daily patterns and compositions.

Methods: This study utilized accelerometer data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) on 2816 older adults aged 50-85 and mortality data from the National Death Index (NDI) in December 2019. A novel partially functional distributional analysis method was used to quantify and understand the association between daily distributional patterns of physical activity and cardiovascular mortality risk through a multivariable functional Cox model.

Results: A higher mean intensity of daily PA during the day was associated with a reduced hazard of CVD mortality after adjusting for other higher order distributional summaries of PA and age, gender, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking and coronary heart disease (CHD). A higher daily variability of PA during afternoon was associated with a reduced hazard of CVD mortality, after adjusting for the other predictors, particularly on weekdays. The subjects with a lower variability of PA, despite having same mean PA throughout the day, could have a lower reserve of PA and hence could be at increased risk for CVD mortality.

Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that not only the mean intensity of daily PA during daytime, but also the variability of PA during afternoon could be an important protective factor against the risk of CVD-mortality. Considering circadian rhythm of PA as well as its daily compositions can be useful for designing time-of-day and intensity-specific PA interventions to protect against the risk of CVD mortality.