Pathways to adoption and mitigation: A dynamic perspective on good agricultural practices in Rural Malawi.

Many researchers have noted the limited adoption of farming management practices that should increase the resilience of smallholder farmers to weather shocks and mitigate their impact on the changing climate in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we evaluate the dynamics of adopting "good agricultural practices" in Malawi, using data from a three-wave panel collected as part of an impact assessment of the Sustainable Agricultural Production Programme, funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development. In addition to project impacts, we also evaluate additional mechanisms though which farmers may learn about the costs and benefits of different practices. We also evaluate the extent to which climatic conditions - such as being located in drought-prone or heavy rainfall areas - drive adoption decisions. Given the three waves of data, we first look at the range of adoption pathways observed, through the use of an adoption pathway trees. We identify six pathways, noting that adoption is not continuous for a large percentage of households. We then run a multinomial logit to assess the factors that increase the likelihood of falling into different adoption categories vis-a-vis remaining a never adopter. Results suggest that learning through information dissemination, such as through the SAPP project, and wider learning opportunities significantly increased the likelihood of pursuing different adoption pathways, while climatic conditions and learning through observing have limited impacts. On the other hand, for land-intensive management practices, being located in drought-prone areas or being located in areas prone to heavy rainfall increased the likelihood of pursuing different adoption pathways, as did greater ability to learn by observing. Learning by information sharing had limited impacts for land-intensive adoption pathway decisions. Overall, results suggest that information dissemination is important, though the mechanism differs by type of practice promoted. Flexibility in adoption status is an attribute of this system and there is a need to identify and promote practices that are both flexible and increase resilience to climate change.