Prediction of pancreatic cancer in patients with new onset hyperglycemia: A modified ENDPAC model.

Background/objectives: The Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (ENDPAC) model relies primarily on fasting glucose values. Health systems have increasingly shifted practice towards use of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) measurement. We modified the ENDPAC model using patients with new onset hyperglycemia.

Methods: Four cohorts of patients 50-84 years of age with HbA1c results ≥6.2-6.5 % in 2011-2018 were identified. A combine cohort was formed. A widened eligibility criterion was applied to form additional four individual cohorts and one combined cohort. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years after the first elevated HbA1c testing. The performance of the modified ENDPAC model was evaluated by AUC, sensitivity, positive predictive value, cases detected, and total number of patients screened.

Results: The individual and combined cohorts consisted of 39,001-79,060 and 69,334-92,818 patients, respectively (mean age 63.5-65.0 years). The three-year PC incidence rates were 0.47%-0.54 %. The AUC measures were in the range of 0.75-0.77 for the individual cohorts and 0.75 for the combined cohorts. When the four individual cohorts were combined, more PC cases can be identified (149 by the combined vs. 113-116 by individual cohorts when risk score was 5+). Performance measures were compromised in nonwhites. Asian and Pacific islanders had lower sensitivity compared to other racial and ethnic groups (29 % vs. 50-60 %) when risk score was 5+.

Conclusions: The modified ENDPAC model targets a broader population and thus identifies more high-risk patients for cancer screening. The differential performance needs to be considered when the model is applied to non-white population.