The distribution of farm locations and sizes is paramount to characterize patterns of disease spread. With some regions undergoing rapid intensification of livestock production, resulting in increased clustering of farms in peri-urban areas, measuring changes in the spatial distribution of farms is crucial to design effective interventions. However, those data are not available in many countries, their generation being resource-intensive. Here, we develop a farm distribution model (FDM), which allows the prediction of locations and sizes of poultry farms in countries with scarce data. The model combines (i) a Log-Gaussian Cox process model to simulate the farm distribution as a spatial Poisson point process, and (ii) a random forest model to simulate farm sizes (i.e. the number of animals per farm). Spatial predictors were used to calibrate the FDM on intensive broiler and layer farm distributions in Bangladesh, Gujarat (Indian state) and Thailand. The FDM yielded realistic farm distributions in terms of spatial clustering, farm locations and sizes, while providing insights on the factors influencing these distributions. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of modelling realistic farm distributions in the context of epidemic spread by simulating pathogen transmission on an array of spatial distributions of farms. We found that farm distributions generated from the FDM yielded spreading patterns consistent with simulations using observed data, while random point patterns underestimated the probability of large outbreaks. Indeed, spatial clustering increases vulnerability to epidemics, highlighting the need to account for it in epidemiological modelling studies. As the FDM maintains a realistic distribution of farm location and sizes, its use to inform mathematical models of disease transmission is particularly relevant for regions where these data are not available.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011980 | DOI Listing |
Poult Sci
December 2024
Department of Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh. Electronic address:
Respiratory viral infections have a considerable detrimental impact on animal health as well as significant financial consequences in the poultry industry. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the major pathogens involved in respiratory diseases of poultry, the co-infection rate, and their epidemiological distribution in commercial chicken farms in Bangladesh. From June 2022 to December 2023, 300 pooled samples (swabs from live birds, and respiratory tissues from dead birds) were collected from the selected poultry farms where respiratory outbreaks were noticed.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Food Prot
December 2024
Department of Population Health & Pathobiology; College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC. Electronic address:
Salmonella species are an important cause of systemic and gastrointestinal disease in animals and humans worldwide; they are also increasingly resistant to multiple classes of antimicrobials which may aid in their treatment and control. Salmonella can also be shed asymptomatically. The aim of this study was to survey the U.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Dairy Sci
December 2024
Faculty of Agricultural, Environmental and Food Sciences, Free University of Bolzano, Piazza Università 5, 39100, Bolzano, Italy. Electronic address:
Claw disorders in dairy cattle represent a significant challenge, impacting animal welfare and farm productivity. This study investigates the prevalence, severity, and breed-specific responses of various claw lesions across 4 dairy breeds Simmental, Alpine Grey, Reggiana, and Valdostana over different seasons and regions in Italy. A total of 131 farms and 2,223 animals were evaluated, comprising 1,239 Simmental, 457 Alpine Grey, 221 Reggiana, and 306 Valdostana cows.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Dairy Sci
December 2024
Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada; Regroupement FRQNT Op+lait, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada. Electronic address:
Mastitis, an inflammation of the udder primarily caused by an intramammary infection, is one of the most common diseases in dairy cattle. Somatic cell count (SCC) has been widely used as an indicator of udder inflammation, assisting in the detection of subclinical mastitis. More recently, differential somatic cell count (DSCC), which represents the combined proportion of lymphocytes and polymorphonuclear leukocytes, has become available for routine dairy milk screening, though it was not yet widely studied.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Dairy Sci
December 2024
Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405. Electronic address:
Variation in species distribution and diversity of staphylococci and mammaliicocci (SaM) causing intramammary infections in dairy cattle is associated with different management practices. Disparate selective pressures on organic dairies could potentially result in population differences of these mastitis-causing bacteria. The species-specific effect on quarter somatic cell count of SaM for a population of certified organic dairies has not been described previously.
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