Prediction of heavy metal ion distribution and Pb and Zn ion concentrations in the tailing pond area.

The pollution caused by tailings ponds has resulted in ecological damage, with soil contamination significantly impacting the daily lives of residents in the vicinity of mining areas and the future development of mining areas. This study assesses the transport status of heavy metal pollution in tailings areas and predicts its impact on future pollution levels. This study focused on lead-zinc tailing ponds, exploring the spatial and chemical distribution characteristics of heavy metals based on the distributions of Pb, Zn, As, Cu, Cr, Cd, Hg, and Ge ions. The concentrations of the major heavy metal ions Pb and Zn in tailings ponds were predicted via the exponential smoothing method. ① The total accumulation of Pb and Zn in the mine tailings ranges from 936.74~1212.61 mg/kg and 1611.85~2191.47 mg/kg, much greater than the total accumulation of the remaining six heavy metals. The total accumulation of associated heavy metal Cu was high, and the lowest total heavy metals were Hg and Ge at only 0.19 mg/kg and 1.05 mg/kg. ② The analyses of soil heavy metal chemical forms reveal that the heavy metals Pb and Zn had the highest exchangeable state content and state ratio and the strongest transport activity in the industrial plaza and village soils. Pb and Zn are the heavy metals with the greatest eco-environmental impacts in the mining area. ③ The predicted results show that the soil concentrations of the heavy metals Pb and Zn around the tailings area in 2026 are 1.335 and 1.191 times the predicted time starting values. The concentrations of the heavy metals Pb and Zn at the starting point of the forecast are already 3.34 and 3.02 times the upper limits of the environmental standard (according to environmental standards for gravelly grey calcium soils). These results have significant implications for heavy metal pollution risk management.