Trend and driving factors in burden of age-related macular degeneration in older adults aged 60-89 years: a global analysis over three decades.

Background: To explore temporal trends and determine driving factors of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) burden in older adults aged 60-89 years at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: Prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to calculate average annual percentage change and to identify the year with the most significant changes. Global trends were stratified by sex, age and sociodemographic index, and regional and national trends were explored. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine what extent the forces of population size, age structure and epidemiologic change driving alterations of AMD burden.

Results: Globally, prevalence rate slightly increased whereas YLDs rate decreased. The year 2005 marked a turning point where both prevalence and YLDs started to decline. Regionally, Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence and YLDs rates in 2019, with East Asia experiencing the most notable rise in prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Global decomposition revealed that the increased case number was primarily driven by population growth and ageing, and epidemiological change was only detected to lessen but far from offset these impacts.

Conclusions: Although there was only slight increase or even decrease in prevalence and YLDs rates of AMD in older adults, the case number still nearly doubled, which may be primarily attributed to population growth and ageing, coupled with the emerging growing pattern of prevalence rate from 2015, collectively suggesting a huge challenge in control and management of AMD.