Non-invasive diagnosis of wheat stripe rust progression using hyperspectral reflectance.

Wheat stripe rust (WSR), a fungal disease capable of inflicting severe crop loss, threatens most of global wheat production. Breeding for genetic resistance is the primary defense against stripe rust infection. Further development of rust-resistant wheat varieties depends on the ability to accurately and rapidly quantify rust resilience. In this study we demonstrate the ability of visible through shortwave infrared reflectance spectroscopy to effectively provide high-throughput classification of wheat stripe rust severity and identify important spectral regions for classification accuracy. Random forest models were developed using both leaf-level and canopy-level hyperspectral reflectance observations collected across a breeding population that was scored for WSR severity using 10 and 5 severity classes, respectively. The models were able to accurately diagnose scored disease severity class across these fine scoring scales between 45-52% of the time, which improved to 79-96% accuracy when allowing scores to be off-by-one. The canopy-level model demonstrated higher accuracy and distinct spectral characteristics relative to the leaf-level models, pointing to the use of this technology for field-scale monitoring. Leaf-level model performance was strong despite clear variation in scoring conducted between wheat growth stages. Two approaches to reduce predictor and model complexity, principal component dimensionality reduction and backward feature elimination, were applied here. Both approaches demonstrated that model classification skill could remain high while simplifying high-dimensional hyperspectral reflectance predictors, with parsimonious models having approximately 10 unique components or wavebands. Through the use of a high-resolution infection severity scoring methodology this study provides one of the most rigorous tests of the use of hyperspectral reflectance observations for WSR classification. We demonstrate that machine learning in combination with a few carefully-selected wavebands can be leveraged for precision remote monitoring and management of WSR to limit crop damage and to aid in the selection of resilient germplasm in breeding programs.