Incidence of mother-to-child transmission of HIV and predictors of positivity among HIV exposed infants in South Gondar public hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia: competing risk regression model.

Background: The principal route of HIV infection in children is vertical transmission. Thus, this study aimed to assess the incidence of mother-to-child transmission of HIV and predictors of positivity among HIV-exposed infants.

Method: Institutions-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted in South Gondar Public hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia from December 2019 to November 2021. The data were taken from PMTCT logbooks and patient medical records, with death being the competing event. Data were entered in to Epi info version 7 and exported to STATA version 14 for final analysis. Both bivariable and multiple variable proportional subdistribution hazard analysis were conducted to identify predictors. P-value < 0.05 was level of significance.

Result: A total of 469 exposed infant mother pairs records were included. The cumulative incidence rate at the end of the study period was 5.2 per 1000 person months (5.2; 95% CI: 3.4-8.0).Infants' absence of ARV prophylaxis at birth (aSHR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.33-10.48), Mothers with no PMTCT intervention (aSHR = 5.1; 95% CI: 1.83-14.03), home delivery (aSHR = 4.1; 95%CI: 1.46-11.63) and maternal disclosure of HIV status to partner/families (aSHR = 2.9; 95% CI: 1.06-7.78) were predictors of HIV positivity.

Conclusion: The study found that Infants' absence of ARV prophylaxis at birth, mothers without PMTCT intervention, home delivery and mothers who were not disclosing their HIV status to families were predictors of HIV positivity.