Cost-effectiveness of lowering systolic blood pressure in reducing cardiovascular disease burden in Australia.

Aim: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remain a leading global cause of death. This research examines the impact of lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) on reducing CVD prevalence. It also assesses the cost-effectiveness of such interventions from a healthcare perspective.

Methods: A synthesis matrix was created to analyse CVD risk factors (SBP, smoking, diabetes, and cholesterol), identifying SBP as the most impactful modifiable risk factor. We utilised validated health economic model which incorporates pooled cohort risk equations to predict the 10-year risk of the first CVD event, factoring in participants' gender, age, SBP, cholesterol levels, diabetes, and smoking status. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured in costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and years of life lived. In a hypothetical scenario, we reduced SBP by 20 % in participants with levels ≥140 mmHg, based on the 2016 Hypertension Management Guide (National Heart Foundation of Australia). A 5 % discount rate was applied to all costs and outcomes.

Results: After reducing SBP by 20 % in participants with levels ≥140 mmHg, we observed a decrease in CVD deaths by 4756 cases (1.21 %) and non-fatal CVD events by 7877 cases (0.77 %). Post-intervention, there was an increase in years of life lived and QALYs experienced by 26,252 years (0.03 %) and 23,928 years (0.03 %), respectively. Acute and chronic costs also decreased, with acute event costs reduced by AUD 24,437,625 (0.28 %) and chronic costs by AUD 18,544,776 (0.71 %). Hypothetical scenario was found to be dominant (cost-saving).

Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that reducing SBP at the population level is cost-saving and has a significant positive impact on cardiovascular outcomes and related costs for those at risk of CVD.