Predicting sleep based on physical activity, light exposure, and Heart rate variability data using wearable devices.

Objective: We aimed to improve the performance of sleep prediction algorithms by increasing the data amount, adding variables reflecting psychological state, and adjusting the data length.

Materials And Methods: We used ActiGraph GT3X+ and Galaxy Watch Active2 to collect physical activity and light exposure data. We collected heart rate variability (HRV) data with the Galaxy Watch. We evaluated the performance of sleep prediction algorithms based on different data sources (wearable devices only, sleep diary only, or both), data lengths (1, 2, or 3 days), and analysis methods. We defined the target outcome, 'good sleep', as ≥90% sleep efficiency.

Results: Among 278 participants who denied having sleep disturbance, we used data including 2136 total days and nights from 230 participants. The performance of the sleep prediction algorithms improved with an increased amount of data and added HRV data. The model with the best performance was the extreme gradient boosting model; XGBoost, using both sources combined data with HRV, and 2-day data (accuracy=.85, area under the curve =.80).

Conclusions: The results show that the performance of the sleep prediction models improved by increasing the data amount and adding HRV data. Further studies targeting insomnia patients and applied researches on non-pharmacological insomnia treatment are needed.