AI Article Synopsis

  • Future climate projections start by selecting emissions scenarios, which are typically narrative-based but here utilize a large probabilistic approach with radiative forcing trajectories.
  • A combined database of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and a climate model helps estimate median emissions for 2100 at 5.1 watts per square meter, with a small chance of exceeding 8.5 watts.
  • Despite the low probability of extreme scenarios like 8.5 watts, their analysis is important for understanding potential climate impacts by the 22nd century and evaluating rare but significant climate risks.

Article Abstract

Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to 95th percentiles of 3.3 to 7.1), with roughly 0.5% probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters, and a 1% probability of being lower than 2.6 watt per square meters. Although the probability of 8.5 watt per square meters scenarios is low, our results support their continued utility for calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22 century (the probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters increases to about 7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11411062PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9DOI Listing

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