Mesocosm Studies Suggest Climate Change May Release (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae from Cold Inhibition and Enable Year-Round Development in a Desert City.

AbstractGlobal warming trends, human-assisted transport, and urbanization have allowed poleward expansion of many tropical vector species, but the specific mechanisms responsible for thermal mediation of range changes and ecological success of invaders remain poorly understood. (Diptera: Culicidae) is a tropical mosquito currently expanding into many higher-latitude regions, including the urban desert region of Maricopa County, Arizona. Here, adult populations virtually disappear in winter and spring and then increase exponentially through summer and fall, indicating that winter conditions remain a barrier to the development of some life stages of . To determine whether cold limits the winter development of larvae in Maricopa County, we surveyed for larval abundance and tested their capacity to develop in ambient and warmed conditions. larvae were not observed in artificial aquatic habitats in winter and spring but were abundant in summer and fall, suggesting winter suppression of adults, larvae, or both. Water temperatures in winter months fluctuated strongly; larvae were usually cold paralyzed at night but active during the day. Despite daytime temperatures that allowed activity and achieving similar degree-days as warmed mesocosms, larvae reared under ambient winter conditions were unable to develop to adulthood, perhaps due to repetitive cold damage. However, warming average temperature by 1.7°C allowed many larvae to successfully develop to adults. Because daytime highs in winter will often allow adult flight, it is likely that relatively minor additional winter warming may allow populations to develop and reproduce year-round in Maricopa County.