A CT-based diagnostic nomogram and survival analysis for differentiating grade 3 pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas.

Objective: To construct a CT-based diagnostic nomogram for distinguishing grade 3 pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (G3 PNETs) from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs) and assess their respective survival outcomes.

Methods: Patients diagnosed with G3 PNETs (n = 30) and PDACs (n = 78) through surgery or biopsy from two medical centers were retrospectively identified. Demographic and radiological information, including age, gender, tumor diameter, shape, margin, dilatation of pancreatic duct, and invasive behavior, were carefully collected. A nomogram was established after univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The Kaplan-Meier survival was performed to analyze their survival outcomes.

Results: Factors with a p-value <0.05, including age, CA 19-9, pancreatic duct dilatation, irregular shape, ill-defined margin, pancreatic atrophy, combined pancreatitis, arterial/portal enhancement ratio, were included in the multivariate logistic analysis. The independent predictive factors, including age (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98), pancreatic duct dilatation (OR, 0.064; 95% CI, 0.01-0.32), and portal enhancement ratio (OR, 1,178.08; 95% CI, 5.96-232,681.2) were determined to develop a nomogram. The internal calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrate that the nomogram exhibits good consistency and discriminative capacity in distinguishing G3 PNETs from PDACs. Patients diagnosed with G3 PNETs exhibited considerably better overall survival outcomes compared to those diagnosed with PDACs (median survival months, 42 vs. 9 months, p < 0.001).

Conclusions: The nomogram model based on age, pancreatic duct dilatation, and portal enhancement ratio demonstrates good accuracy and discriminative ability effectively predicting the probability of G3 PNETs from PDACs. Furthermore, patients with G3 PNETs exhibit better prognosis than PDACs.