Survival in medullary thyroid carcinoma patients who fail to achieve a biochemical cure: implications of postoperative 1-month calcitonin levels and targeted therapy.

Purpose: The survival rate of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) who fail to achieve a biochemical cure after surgery is reduced. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors affecting the survival of MTC patients who do not achieve a biochemical cure after surgery.

Methods: Cox univariate and multivariate proportional hazard models were used to determine the influence of different variables on overall survival (OS). Pearson's chi-square test was used for categorical variables, and paired t-test was used for continuous variables.

Results: In our study of 277 MTC patients treated between 2012 and 2022, there were 96 with raised postoperative 1-month calcitonin (Ct) levels (0-9.52 pg/ml). The overall survival (OS) rates of patients with high postoperative 1-month Ct values at 1, 3, and 5 years were 97.9%, 94.6%, and 86.8%, respectively. The univariate analysis revealed that patients with a postoperative 1-month Ct > 441.9 pg/ml had a greater risk of mortality than patients with postoperative 1-month Ct values ranging from 9.52 to 73.4 pg/ml (p = 0.043). Subsequent analyses revealed that receiving targeted therapy did not improve the OS of patients with distant metastasis among those with high postoperative 1-month Ct values (p = 0.527).

Conclusion: This study confirmed that MTC patients who did not achieve biochemical remission after surgery had an increased risk of death when the Ct level was > 441.9 pg/ml 1 month after surgery. Additionally, for MTC patients who have not achieved biochemical remission and have experienced disease progression or distant metastasis after surgery, the use of targeted therapy does not prolong survival.