An interpretable machine learning method for risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Backgrounds: Risk stratification for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) within one year in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains a challenge. Although several predictive models based on machine learning have emerged, they are difficult to understand. This study aimed to develop a machine learning prediction model that is easy to understand and trustworthy by lay people to assess the risk of MACE in ACS patients undergoing PCI within one year of the procedure.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study used medical data from 1105 patients to construct a machine-learning model. To ensure thoroughness and multidimensionality of model parsing, Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) analysis and Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) interpretation techniques were used to systematically and deeply interpret the constructed models from a global to a detailed level.

Results: The study assessed 12 machine learning methods' prediction models and found that the Random Forest model was the most effective in predicting the risk of MACE in ACS patients after undergoing PCI. The model achieved an AUC value of 0.807 in the validation set, with an accuracy of 0.82, and a stable F1 score of 0.51. SHAP analysis ranked eight key feature variables, such as LVEF, in global importance. The weights of each feature range in the prediction model were revealed using LIME analysis.

Conclusion: The machine learning prediction model we developed is capable of accurately predicting the likelihood of patients with ACS experiencing a MACE within one year of surgery.