Rapid metastatic recurrence after pancreatic cancer resection: a multi-center, regional analysis of trends in surgical failure over two decades.

Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAc) is a lethal malignancy, attributed in part to high rates of rapid recurrence (rrPDAc) following resection. We sought to characterize recurrence rates over time and investigate factors predictive of rrPDAc.

Methods: A regional multi-institutional cancer registry, augmented with data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, was queried for patients with PDAc from 1996 to 2020. rrPDAc was defined as recurrence within 6 months following curative-intent resection.

Results: We identified 924 patients who underwent resection for PDAc; rrPDAc occurred in 236 (26%) patients. Median incidence of rrPDAc was 25.3% (IQR 22-30.2%) per year. Median survival in rrPDAc, non-rapid recurrence, and no recurrence was 10.3, 25.2, and 56.1 months respectively (p < 0.001). Variables independently associated with greater odds of rrPDAc included surgical site infection (SSI) (OR 2.06) and nodal positivity (OR 2.05); adjuvant therapy was associated with lower odds (OR 0.38). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy did not alter risk of rrPDAc. Three-year post-recurrence survival was no different in rrPDAc versus those without.

Conclusion: Despite therapeutic advances, incidence of rrPDAc remains unchanged. SSIs and nodal positivity are independently associated with increased risk of rrPDAc, while adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with lower risk. Strategies focused on preventing rapid recurrence may improve survival.