Predictors of early recurrence of oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma after neoadjuvant FLOT.

Background: Although survival of patients with oesophagogastric adenocarcinomas has improved over the years, rates of cancer recurrence remain high. There is limited research on predictors of early recurrence (ER), especially in patients receiving FLOT chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to investigate ER and survival rates and identify risk factors for ER.

Methods: Patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy with FLOT for oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma at single high-volume centre between August 2018 and January 2023 were evaluated for early recurrence defined as disease present within 1 year of surgery. Multivariable analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for ER. Patients who died in-hospital or within 90 days of surgery and those with positive longitudinal margin were excluded.

Results: 196 patients were included. 93.3 % and 40.3 % of patients completed all four neoadjuvant and adjuvant cycles of FLOT respectively. 54 patients (27.6 %) developed recurrence in the follow up period with 27 patients (13.8 %) having ER. Recurrence free survival and overall survival at one year were 83.7 % and 90.8 % respectively. The estimated median survival after recurrence was 4.1 months. Extracapsular spread was found to be independent risk factor for ER (OR 4.565, 95 % CI 1.450-14.369, p = 0.009) in multivariable analyses together with ypN3 stage (OR 7.978, 95 % CI 1.339-47.534, p = 0.023).

Conclusions: The variables identified in this study may be helpful in determining patients at a higher risk of ER following curative surgery. Understanding these predictors may help tailor the follow up care of these patients, such as regular surveillance imaging, treatment, and frequency of reviews.