Predictive Modelling of Diabetes Risk in Population Groups Defined by Socioeconomic and Lifestyle Factors in Canada: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Objectives: This study modelled diabetes risk for population groups in Canada defined by socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics and investigated inequities in diabetes risk using a validated population risk prediction algorithm.

Methods: We defined population groups, informed by determinants of health frameworks. We applied the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) to 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey data to predict 10-year diabetes risk and cases across population groups. We modelled a preventive intervention scenario to estimate reductions in diabetes for population groups and impacts on the inequity in diabetes risk across income and education.

Results: The population group with at least one lifestyle and at least one socioeconomic/structural risk factor had the highest estimated 10-year diabetes risk and number of new cases. When an intervention with a 5% relative risk reduction was modelled for this population group, diabetes risk decreased by 0.5% (females) and 0.7% (males) and the inequity in diabetes risk across income and education levels was reduced.

Conclusion: Preventative interventions that address socioeconomic and structural risk factors have potential to reduce inequities in diabetes risk and overall diabetes burden.