Subtle changes in plant diversity in the Bavarian Alps over the past eight decades.

Historical resurveys represent a unique opportunity to analyze vegetation dynamics over longer timescales than is typically achievable. Leveraging the oldest historical dataset of vegetation change in the Bavarian Alps, Germany, we address how environmental conditions, vegetation composition, and functional diversity in the calcareous grasslands of the Schachen region have changed across different elevational ranges over an 83-year timeframe. We document changes in regional average temperature and precipitation. We use indicator values (IV) for species' ecological preferences and their palatability to grazers to infer local conditions (temperature, soil moisture/fertility, and grazing regime). We further estimate changes in temporal beta-diversity and functional trait community composition between historical (1936) and contemporary (2019) surveys in two elevational (subalpine and alpine) belts. Both subalpine and alpine sites became drier; subalpine sites also became warmer with more palatable plants. Species occurrence and abundance in the Schachen region has not changed substantially over time despite changing macroclimate and local environmental conditions under anthropogenic change. Yet these grasslands have experienced several "invisible" changes in functional composition over the past 80 years. As the Schachen has become drier, species with traits related to drought tolerance and animal-based dispersal have increased in dominance. Specifically, in alpine sites, community-weighted means revealed that with low fecundity, higher potential for endo- and epizoochory (seed dispersal via animal gut and fur, respectively), higher foliar frost tolerance, and deeper dormancy increased in dominance. Similar trends were found for increasing dominance of low fecundity, epizoochorous species in subalpine sites. Vegetation data from resurveying historical plots in combination with changes in local conditions, classic biodiversity indices, and functional trait indices can provide more holistic insights into changes in the environment and potential impacts of those environmental changes on long-term plant community and functional diversity.