Quality and quantity of macronutrients, and their joint associations with the incidence of type 2 diabetes over a nine-year follow-up.

Background: The association between macronutrient consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains equivocal. Here, we investigated whether the quantity and quality of macronutrient intake are associated with T2D incidence in a West Asian population.

Methods: T2D-free adults (n = 2457, mean age 38.5 ± 13.6 years, 54.2% women) who participated in the third examination cycle (2005-2008) of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study were followed for a median of 8.6 years. We estimated the macronutrient quality index (MQI), its individual sub-indices (carbohydrate quality index (CQI), fat quality index (FQI), and healthy plate protein quality index (HPPQI)), as well as the macronutrient quantity. The risk of T2D in relation to macronutrient quantity, quality, and their combined effects was examined using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for known risk factors for T2D.

Results: During the study follow-up, 257 incident cases of T2D were documented. Individuals in the highest tertiles of MQI and CQI had a 27% (HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.54, 0.98) and 29% (HR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.51-0.99) lower T2D risk than those in the lowest tertiles. The T2D incidence was 35% lower in the middle HPPQI tertile than in the lowest (HR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.47, 0.89). The multivariable adjusted model showed that individuals in the middle and highest tertiles of carbohydrate intake had 32% (HR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.49-0.95) and 26% (HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.55-1.00) lower risks of T2D than individuals in the lowest tertile. A high-quantity, high-quality carbohydrate diet (≥ 58.5% of energy from carbohydrate with a CQI ≥ 13) and a low-glycemic index (GI), high-fiber diet (GI < 55 and fiber ≥ 25 g/d) were related to a reduced risk of T2D by 34% (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.47, 0.93) and 42% (HR = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.38, 0.90), respectively.

Conclusion: A diet with a higher carbohydrate quality may be associated with a lower T2D incidence, particularly when the carbohydrate quantity is also high.